Government network: August PMI fell mainly weighed down by temporary factors

Photo: Oriental IC

Integrated media reported August new manufacturing PMI fell below to flourish in both official and financial lines, some media and agencies believe that Manufacturing PMI fell mainly weighed down by temporary factors such as parade, severe weather data trend is still within the expected. Meanwhile, official non-manufacturing PMI remained at high level of 53.4, caixin, China's service sector PMI is 51.3 is expanding range of services sector maintained a steady growth, China's economic fundamentals have not changed for the better.

First, some media and agencies think August Manufacturing PMI fell mainly weighed down by temporary factors. The Wall Street Journal reported in August, China's Manufacturing PMI index showed weakness, analysts said, such weakness may be temporary, because China is the main economic engine is not running at full speed. Morgan Stanley said that severe weather is seasonal and one-off factors of 7 August, after some special effect to fade, will enter a mild recovery of economic growth. Since the August index of business expectations rose sharply to 52.9 last month from 54.1, a significant improvement for 2 consecutive months, while August national electric and railway freight loading conditions are improved. First financial daily, said the August Manufacturing PMI data is dropped, some seasonal factors on the one hand, the traditional low season exacerbated the market weakness, increased difficulties in traditional industries on the other, international finance and abnormal fluctuation of commodities, economic operation of passive input a new element of instability. But overall, trend data in less than expected.

Second, run some positive elements in that manufacturing activity continues to emerge. Is to maintain a steady growth of high-tech manufacturing. British futures said although the overall gradual fall in the PMI index, but high-tech manufacturing PMI higher than the overall level of manufacturing 2.5%. Among them, the computer communication electronic equipment manufacturing, railway transportation equipment manufacturing PMI in the higher levels keep rising. High-tech manufacturing industries in the manufacturing sector as a whole in the "scene" and heavier. Second, consumer industry growth momentum is good. Reuters said the August PMI related consumer goods industries to 54.6, 4.9% above the overall level of manufacturing, indicating continued consumer demand in driving economic rise, consumption is still the mainstay of the Chinese economy. Three small positive changes in business. China Securities network, says small business although the PMI index remain below 50, but by 1.2%, to 48.1. In addition, small enterprises production rose to 3%, nearly 50, rise in the new orders index at 1%. Show results of customs tax cuts and other policies, small business a boost. Government network: August PMI fell mainly weighed down by temporary factors

Three, the official high and new financial service sector PMI continued to maintain, display services industry growth is strong. The Shanghai Securities News said official August non-manufacturing PMI remained at high level of 53.4, caixin, China's service sector PMI is 51.3 expansion range, accounts for nearly half of GDP in services continued to be active. Lian ping, Chief Economist of Bank of communications said that we looked at for a long time in manufacturing, but significantly increased the share of the service sector, non-manufacturing industries to hold up well enough to offset the economic downward pressure. New financial think-tank, said he fan, an economist, August services PMI was still expanding, currently China's tertiary industry (service industry) value added in the proportion of GDP higher than that of secondary industry 5.8%, has become the locomotive of new round of economic growth. Kay investment and macro said in August, China's service sector PMI index continues to remain high, service on the driving forces of China's economy growing services sector continued its healthy growth.

Four, some experts believe, with steady growth policies are gradually taking effect, economic fundamentals will become better in the second half. Macroeconomic, Development Research Center researcher Zhang Liqun said that with steady growth continues to force future economic growth would stabilise. Shun securities said Gao Shanwen, Chief Economist, taking into account broad financial impact to drag economic growth faded, home sales improved support for developing investment activity is expected to stabilise economic momentum is expected to be lower in the second half. Morgan Stanley said that infrastructure investment will pay off with at the end of the third quarter and four-quarter economic growth stabilises, China's economic fundamentals will begin to hold up well in the future. CICC, said approval of the massive infrastructure projects begun in the first half, the resulting investment-driven effects will become clear, and the devaluation of the renminbi is conducive to ease the downward pressure on exports and boost exports. China's economy has hit bottom during the current phase, and will begin to rebound in the coming months.